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Commercial Fisheries News
Volume 37 Number 4
December 2009
NE council supports 106,000 mt herring ABC
NEWPORT, RI – Acting on a revised recommendation from its Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC), the New England Fishery Management Council has selected an Atlantic herring acceptable biological catch (ABC) of 106,000 metric tons (mt) per year for fishing years 2010 through 2012.
The ABC is 16,000 mt more than the 90,000 mt ABC the SSC recommended in September (see CFN October 2009 for details). However, the higher figure, while welcomed, is still far below the 2009 ABC of 194,000 mt and well below the US optimum yield of 145,000 mt, which is the current operational quota.
After adopting the 106,000 mt ABC during its Nov. 17-19 meeting here, the council deducted 14,800 mt off the top to account for “management uncertainty” and then proceeded to allocate the remaining tonnage among the herring management areas.
The resulting 91,200 mt was distributed as follows with a comparison to the area’s 2009 quota:
Area 1A – 26,546 mt, down from 45,000 mt;
Area 1B – 4,362 mt, down from 10,000 mt;
Area 2 – 22,146 mt, down from 30,000 mt; and
Area 3 – 38,146 mt, down from 60,000 mt.
The council’s herring committee initially recommended an Area 3 catch limit of only 22,146 mt when it thought the ABC would be 90,000 mt. But after adopting the higher 106,000 mt ABC, the council opted to allocate the extra tonnage to Area 3 on Georges Bank where the stock is considered to be especially robust.
The council approved another motion that could boost the Area 1A quota by 3,000 mt under certain circumstances. The potential lies in the 14,800 mt that was taken off the top to account for “management uncertainty.”
Management uncertainty covers unknown factors in the fishery, the biggest of which is the New Brunswick weir fishery where landings fluctuate vastly from year to year and often are very low. Other sources of uncertainty include small amounts of discards and state-only herring landings.
The council voted that if the New Brunswick weir fishery lands less than 9,000 mt by Oct. 15 of a fishing year, then 3,000 mt from the management uncertainty amount will be reallocated back to Area 1A for November and December.
If this happens, the Area 1A quota that year would total 29,546 mt.
The council’s decisions were being forwarded to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) as recommendations. NMFS has the final say on fishery specifications, so none of the quotas or the ABC will be implemented until NMFS approves them.
How we got here
The days between mid-September and mid-November were filled with disbelief, discouragement, and anger for almost everyone with a stake in the herring fishery, including herring seiners, midwater trawlers, lobstermen, bait suppliers, dealers, and many others.
It all began when the SSC determined that, due to great scientific uncertainty in the 2009 herring stock assessment update developed by the US/Canada Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee (TRAC), the herring ABC for 2010-2012 should be set very conservatively at 90,000 mt (see CFN September and October 2009 for TRAC details and the SSC’s response).
The New England council heard this recommendation during its late September meeting. Stunned by the severe implications for the industry, the council asked the SSC to take a second look, primarily to further evaluate whether it really was necessary to adopt a 40% buffer between the overfishing limit and the ABC to account for this scientific uncertainty in the assessment.
So SSC members engaged in extensive e-mail correspondence about their initial recommendation. This discussion culminated in a conference call in mid-November just days before the council meeting.
The SSC concluded that the 2010-2012 ABC for the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank herring complex “should be limited to recent catch.” On that point, the SSC was in full agreement.
Three choices
However, SSC Chairman Steve Cadrin said the committee could not reach a consensus on what constituted “recent catch.”
Consequently, the SSC offered three options for defining recent catch and told the council it would need to make the final selection based on its “tolerance of risk,” said Cadrin.
The three “recent catch” options were:
2008, the single most recent year, which would result in a 90,000 mt ABC;
2006 through 2008, an average of the three most recent years, which would result in an ABC of 106,000 mt; and
2004 through 2008, an average of the five most recent years, which would result in an ABC of 108,000 mt.
The SSC further advised the council to take into account other factors, including the fact that the number of fish that will be available for harvest is expected to dip over the next three years.
“Exploitable biomass is projected to decline during 2010-2012 due to the recruitment of poorer than average year classes,” the SSC said. “The risk of depleting spawning components and the role of herring in the ecosystem as a forage species needs to be considered.”
Finally, the SSC said, “Given the substantial uncertainty in the assessment, the council should consider a conservative catch limit (e.g. 90,000 mt as recommended by the SSC in September).”
Which ABC is best?
The council ended up considering every one of the options.
The debate started off with a motion by Maine council member Mary Beth Tooley to adopt the five-year landings average, which would result in a 108,000 mt ABC.
Tooley said several SSC members were “very clear that recent catch was not one year.”
Furthermore, she said, the SSC noted that the stock was not overfished and overfishing was not occurring.
But Massachusetts council member Rip Cunningham said he was uncomfortable with the leap given that the council in September thought it needed to work with a 90,000 mt ABC.
“We have moved from the most conservative estimate to the most liberal,” he said.
New Hampshire council member Doug Grout then moved to substitute the five-year option with the average three-year landings option and the 106,000 mt ABC.
This substitute motion passed, but then Connecticut council member Sally McGee moved to substitute again and use 2008 landings only, which would result in a 90,000 mt ABC.
Rhode Island council member Mark Gibson opposed the proposed switch, saying that it ignored the “principal rationale” for using an average in the face of uncertainty.
Given that the stock was not overfished and there were multiple year classes of fish showing up in the landings, he said, “There’s no need to pick the last year.”
Industry speaks
Maine lobster dealer Dana Rice strongly objected to the 90,000-mt option.
“There is no way I could overemphasize the socioeconomic ramifications of cutting this resource to 90,000 mt,” he said. “It will devastate the lobster industry beyond repair.”
Rice said fishermen were seeing positive signs of herring abundance on the water and had already shouldered several quota cutbacks in recent years. Back in 2006, the Area 1A quota was 60,000 mt, 25% higher than it was this year.
“We can go with the 106,000 mt and still be conservative, and it will soften one of the biggest blows to fishing communities that I think I’ve seen in my lifetime,” he said.
Patrice McCarron, executive director of the Maine Lobstermen’s Association (MLA), said the MLA was “highly concerned about all of the options under consideration.”
Even at 108,000 mt or 106,000 mt, there would be “severe economic fallout,” she said. However, both of those options were far preferable to the 90,000-mt alternative.
“All three options sufficiently account for the scientific uncertainty, so this is really a judgment call at this point,” she said.
Maine lobster landings were valued at $244 million in 2008 and, according to McCarron, the catch, once economic multipliers were factors in, contributed one billion dollars to the state’s economy.
But to generate those landings, the industry needs bait, she said. And in 2008, herring comprised 70% of all bait used in the Maine lobster fishery.
“If we don’t have bait, we can’t fish,” she said.
Uncertainty concerns
Peter Shelley of the Conservation Law Foundation urged the council to heed the SSC’s advice about being cautious in the face of the assessment’s uncertainty.
“This is a very important fishery both in its own respect and in the role it plays in the ecosystem,” he said. “The SSC clearly said the council should consider a conservative catch limit.”
New Hampshire council member David Goethel also leaned in this direction.
“We can’t afford to be wrong with this,” he said. “You talk about no bait. If we have to rebuild herring, you won’t have bait for years.”
The council defeated the 90,000 mt ABC by a vote of 4-to-12 with one abstention and then approved the three-year 2006-2008 landings average ABC of 106,000 mt in a 15-to-1 vote with one abstention.
Area breakdowns
The council then had to divvy up the 106,000 mt, a task that surprisingly went with relative ease with almost no public comment.
Some said that was because the herring committee already had made the difficult allocation decisions and put forward a comprehensive recommendation for council approval. Others said it was because many industry members felt it was futile, at that point, to protest.
The only real issue was what to do with the extra 16,000 mt of fish gained from the ABC increase to 106,000 mt over the original 90,000 mt.
Some wanted more fish for Area 1A, where the bulk of landings traditionally come from. Others wanted extra fish for Area 2 to ensure the mackerel fishery would operate smoothly without fear of a shutdown due to herring bycatch. And others, especially those who have had a successful fall fishery this year on Georges Bank, were eager to see additional quota in Area 3.
Mary Beth Tooley opposed the idea of putting the entire 16,000 mt of extra fish into Area 3.
“Historically, over the past 50 years, the Gulf of Maine has been the most productive for the fishery,” she said. “When the SSC said keep landings at current catch, that didn’t mean we should turn everything upside down, put people out of work, and put the last remaining sardine cannery in Maine below its break-even point.
“We’re talking about driving removal rates down to levels of when some people thought the stock collapsed,” she said. “I think the economic impacts that will result from this are just not justified.”
However, other council members expressed concern about the Area 1A resource, and NMFS Regional Director Pat Kurkul said, “If we’re going to be adding any additional fish, it should not be to the inshore stock.”
Following all the debate, the council adopted the area-by-area specifications outlined above, including the Area 1A catch limit of 26,546 mt with the possibility of 3,000 mt more depending on the New Brunswick weir fishery. It also added the 16,000 mt of extra fish to Area 3. Tooley recused herself from all the area-specific allocation votes.
Other specs
The council endorsed a suite of other 2010-2012 specifications, including zero allocation for joint venture processing, internal waters processing, foreign fishing, US at-sea processing, and research set-asides.
The council approved allowing 4,000 mt for border transfers with Canada. It also voted to reduce the Area 1A set-aside for fixed gear fishermen west of Cutler, ME from 500 mt to 295 mt, proportionally based on the new Area 1A quota.
The next chance for public comment on the specifications will come when NMFS publishes a proposed rule later this fall or early winter.
Janice M. Plante
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